Every January, the wireless industry sets ambitious goals: 5G expansion, network optimization, customer experience improvements. But there’s one resolution that rarely makes the list—and it should.

Fix payment processing.

It might not sound as glamorous to you as it does to us. But in 2026, as the MVNO market heads toward $116 billion by 2028¹ and telcos face unprecedented fraud challenges, getting payments right might be the difference between profitable growth and leaving millions on the table.

Here’s what we at Vesta hope—and expect—to see from telcos in 2026.

Resolution #1: Start tracking approval rates monthly

The global MVNO market is growing at 7.6% CAGR, with operators competing heavily on pricing and service differentiation.²,³ 

In this environment, it’s even more critical to capture every revenue dollar, especially since customer acquisition can cost $200-400 per subscriber in marketing spend.

Then payment processors decline them at checkout.

What we hope to see: Telcos knowing their payment approval rate as well as they know their churn rate. 

Here’s why: If you’re running at 85% approval while your competitor achieves 92%, they’re capturing 7% more revenue from the same marketing spend.

The math for a 100,000-subscriber MVNO at $25/month:

• 85% approval rate = $25.5M annual revenue
• 92% approval rate = $27.6M annual revenue
• The difference: $2.1M in additional revenue captured

Most operators we talk to don’t know their approval rate. They assume their processor is handling it. In 2026, start asking. Calculate the revenue impact. Then decide if your processor is delivering value.

Resolution #2: Understand why transactions are declining

Telecommunications fraud costs the industry $4-7 billion annually,⁴ and operators should take fraud seriously. But there’s a difference between catching actual fraud and flagging normal telecom behavior as suspicious.

What we hope to see: Telcos digging into their decline reasons. Not just total declines, but why.

Here’s why: A prepaid customer topping up at 2 a.m. might look like fraud to a generic processor. Family plans with SIM cards shipping to different addresses might trigger red flags. A spike in charges from another country could look suspicious.

But in many cases with telecom, these behaviors aren’t indications of fraud. They could be normal wireless behavior.

Ask your processor: What percentage of our declines are fraud-related? Are they concentrated in prepaid customers, international transactions, roaming? Can you show patterns by time of day and customer segment?

Once you know why payments are being declined, you can start to figure out if they really should be.

Resolution #3: Calculate your true cost per transaction

A low rack rate looks attractive. But what does it actually cost you?

What we hope to see: Calculate true cost per successful transaction:

(Total processing fees + chargeback fees + fraud losses + support costs) ÷ successful transactions

That’s your real rate.

A processor charging 2.5% with 82% approval and no fraud protection might cost more than one charging 3% who delivers 93% approval and covers fraud.

For a 100,000-subscriber MVNO at $25/month, a 1% approval improvement generates $300,000 annually. That dwarfs savings from shaving 0.2% off processing rates.

In 2026, stop optimizing for the lowest advertised rate, and start optimizing for highest net revenue.

What 2026 could look like:

The telecom industry is at an inflection point. MVNO market size will surge from $105 billion in 2025 toward $206 billion by 2033.⁶ But growth hits a bottleneck at payment processing—if operators work with processors who don’t understand telecom, don’t align incentives, and don’t provide transparency.

The telcos who thrive in 2026 will:

• Switch if they don’t get transparency
• Track approval rates and understand what they mean
• Spot false declines in their decline reasons
• Use telecom-specific fraud detection solutions
• Calculate true cost, not just advertised rates

Ready to make 2026 your best year yet?

If these resolutions resonate, let’s talk. We’ll analyze your payment performance, calculate revenue impact of approval improvements, and show you what payment processing looks like when it’s built for telecom.